ANALISIS AKURASI BEARISH VERSUS BULLISH DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN CANDLESTICK ANALYSIS: Studi Empiris Terhadap Indeks Saham LQ45 (1999-2012)

Usman, Berto and Ridwan, Nurazi and Iskandar, Zulkarnain (2012) ANALISIS AKURASI BEARISH VERSUS BULLISH DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN CANDLESTICK ANALYSIS: Studi Empiris Terhadap Indeks Saham LQ45 (1999-2012). Management Insight, 7 (2). pp. 154-171. ISSN 1978-3884

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Abstract

The objective of the study is to determine the differences in index price prediction according to candlesticks analysis method with the actual index price data. In addition, this study intended to apply technical analysis as a continuation of fundamental analysis. Technical analysis that used in this study is the oldest method. It is found in the 17 thcenturies and called as candlestick analysis. This analysis tool is used to find how much percentage Bearish versus Bullish resulting in the movement of index within a certain time interval. The object of this research is LQ45 index, with the number of monthly stock price data as much as 168 trading month. Data taken focused on the time interval May 1999 to December 2012. Data processing was performed with the help of Hendra’s Add Ins tools software that was gained from the book of “Candlesticks and it's application in Indonesian market”. The software can be applied into MS-Excel directly (2003, 2007 and 2010). Furthermore, paired samples t-test performed on the resulting index price prediction from candlestick analysis with the actual index price with a significant level of 5%. The research proved that happened 16 times Bullish patterns and 12 times Bearish patterns in index price movement trends in LQ45 index. Finally, Paired samples t-test output showed that there is no significant differences in the price acquired from index price predictions by using candlestick analysis with the actual index.

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