FORECASTING MODEL OF FREQUENCY AND AVERAGE EARTHQUAKE STRENGTH IN BENGKULU PROVINCE BASED ON AUTOREGRESSIVE FRACTIONALLY INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARFIMA) APPROACH

Rizal, Jose and Fachri, Faisal and Suhendra, Suhendra and Nanang, Sugianto (2016) FORECASTING MODEL OF FREQUENCY AND AVERAGE EARTHQUAKE STRENGTH IN BENGKULU PROVINCE BASED ON AUTOREGRESSIVE FRACTIONALLY INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARFIMA) APPROACH. In: The 12th IMT-GT International Conference on Mathematics, Statistics and Their Applications 2016, 4-6 October 2016, AAC Dayan Dawood, Syiah Kuala University.

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Abstract

The aim of this research was made forecasting earthquake model in Bengkulu province areas. It was included to identify earthquake area, frequency of earthquake every month, and average of earthquake magnitude for every month. They have obtained by two analytical approach, they were descriptive statistical and inference statistical analysis that included in Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA). Variable in this research was the frequency of earthquakes in one of month (A) and average of earthquake magnitude in one of month (B). Data processing was used historical earthquake from January 2000 until May 2016. R 3.02 Software, Oxmetrics 4, ArcGis 10.2, dan Surfer 13 were some software applications that used in processing and interpretation. The result of this results showed that the best forecasting model (criteria in sample dan out sample minimum) for frequency of earthquake was ARFIMA (2, 0.633, 1) and for magnitude of earthquake (SR scale) ARFIMA model were (1, 0.856, 1). Analysis result showed that the frequency of earthquake for three month future would be 21 times for Juny, 21 times for July, and 19 times for agustus 2016. The magnitude of earthquake for three month future were estimated about (in SR scale) 3.25, 3.23, dan 3.23. The number frequency of earthquake in province Bengkulu going to be high at near of Seluma, Bengkulu City, Central Bengkulu and North Bengkulu districts.

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